Going by the numbers that 60 % will contract the coronavirus – 159 million could die from the corona virus – this mean that in a country like Italy and UK around 36-40 million people will be infected.
If the numbers of patients needing intensive care treatment are 10 % (as currently in Italy) this mean that 3,6 to 4 million will need intensive care in countries like Italy and UK.
As we cannot let the sick just die without care, we either have to massively increase the numbers of doctors and nurses, which are not possible, or the infection rate has to be slowed down by lockdowns.
Let’s look at the math –
Italy has around 5000 intensive care beds.
Many are used for other patients, but let’s assume that we could find 5000 to be used for coronavirus patients.
Let’s also assume that the average stay in intensive care is only 1 week.
If 4,000,000 will need intensive care treatment for 1 weeks each, it means that we need to prolong the outbreak for 800 weeks, in order to treat all.
This is over 15 years !
If we could double the beds, or half the number of people needing intensive care treatment – then it is still over 7,5 years.
Unless we are able to lower the numbers of people needing intensive care treatment or massively increase the number of intensive care beds – we could find ourselves in periods of lockdowns for many years.
Let’s all seek Jesus with all our hearts and make sure that He is our Lord. If we all seek God with all our hearts, He is merciful and has promised to intervene, and He will save us from this plague.