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Wednesday, July 8, 2020

What is the death rate ?

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Looking at the death rates, they seem to differ from country to country starting at around 1.5% in some countries and going up to 12.7% in countries like Italy.

However, as we will see, in reality the difference is much smaller.

Norway does a lot of testing, meaning that of all tested, only around 5 % are infected.

However, in a country like Sweden, around 15% of the tested are infected.

This mean that we can draw the conclusion that if Sweden tested as much as Norway, they would have 3 times the number of infections, that they have recorded.

This makes the math easy.

If we adjust for the number of tests done, we will see that the death rate is very much the same in the different countries.

From the calculations we have done, it gives a current death rate of around 1.5 – 2 % in most countries, going up to 3-4% in countries where the health system is overwhelmed.

It has also been a pattern that the death rate goes up over time, even if the testing remains the same.

As such Norway early on had a death rate of only 0.3% to now have reached 1.7%

All logic states that it will continue to go up even further.

It is also paramount to avoid that the health care system collapses.

In Sweden where the healthcare system can no longer cope, the death rate is much higher than in Norway, standing at around 2.7% (after adjustment for testing)

What the final death rate will end up to be, only God knows.

Testing from Iceland shows that the real number of infected in a country is higher than the recorded number. How much will of course vary from country to country depending on how much tests there has been done.

The estimate is that Norway has around 3-4 times as many infected as the recorded number.

Looking at Iceland, the result seems to be about the same when adjusting for their test rate.

(Note that to multiply with 3-4, first the adjustment of the recorded numbers has to be done.)

However, all indications are that also the real number of deaths are much higher and some have estimated it to be 2-3 number the recorded number in Italy.

If so, this could even up, meaning that the death rate doesn’t change that much from the adjusted death rate.

No matter how we look at it, the death rate is very high, even when the health care systems copes.

And the price for the economy to keep it at that level is also very high.

No human can save us from this plague.

Only God can, so let us all turn to Him and seek Jesus with all our hearts.

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Emanuel Imanuelsen
Emanuel Imanuelsen
Emanuel Imanuelsen is a Christian, husband, father and businessman. He is from Sweden and is neither left-wing nor right-wing.


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