Sweden will raise its national wolf reference value from 170 to 220 animals, the government announced on 31 July. The change follows criticism from the European Commission over the scientific basis for the lower figure.
The reference value represents the population level needed for wolves to maintain favourable conservation status under EU rules. It should be treated as a minimum safety level rather than a target or maximum number of wolves.
Sweden wolf reference value rises to 220
The government has instructed the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Naturvårdsverket, to report the new figure of 220 wolves to the European Commission. The agency must also review how this national value is divided between Sweden’s three large carnivore management areas.
“Sweden’s wolf population must be both balanced and genetically sustainable, and decisions about it must last over time and be based on scientific evidence,” Climate and Environment Minister Romina Pourmokhtari said in the government’s official announcement.
The government lowered the value from 300 to 170 in 2025. It now describes 220 as a small upward adjustment, while noting that the figure remains well below the previous level of 300.
Sweden’s wolf population was estimated at about 355 animals during the 2025–2026 monitoring period. This figure included territories shared with Norway. The long-term population trend was assessed as increasing, while the shorter 12-year trend was stable.
EU questioned scientific support for 170
In November 2025, the European Commission raised concerns about Sweden’s decision to use 170 wolves as its favourable reference population.
In a letter concerning Sweden’s reporting under the Habitats Directive, the Commission said 170 appeared to represent a minimum viable population rather than a scientifically supported reference value.
A minimum viable population, commonly shortened to MVP, estimates how many animals are needed to reduce the risk of extinction. A reference value must also consider genetic variation, environmental uncertainty, the species’ ecological role and its ability to survive long-term changes.
EU guidance says the reference value should be higher than the minimum viable population to provide a safety margin. The Commission therefore asked Sweden to review its report and provide a corrected submission.
Naturvårdsverket had also concluded that the reference value needed to be higher than 170. Its assessment warned that a very low population could reduce genetic diversity, increase inbreeding and create legal and biological risks.
Sweden’s wolf population has limited genetic variation because it developed from a small number of animals. Continued immigration of wolves from eastern populations is important for maintaining its genetic health.
Sweden seeks joint wolf plan
Naturvårdsverket will now begin talks with Norway and Finland about a joint management plan for the Fennoscandian wolf population.
The work will examine how cross-border cooperation, movement between populations and national protection measures could support favourable conservation status. The final report on the joint plan is due by 31 December 2028.
The agency must also investigate whether a minimum viable population of 100 animals could be scientifically supported for Sweden’s part of the wider Scandinavian wolf population.
This figure is not Sweden’s new reference value. The current decision sets that value at 220, while the possible level of 100 is a separate scientific question that the agency has been asked to examine.
Rural Affairs Minister Peter Kullgren said the government still believes favourable conservation status could be possible at a lower level. He said the new decisions were intended to support licence hunting in future years while developing broader regional management.
New regional levels due in October
Sweden’s county administrative boards must submit proposals for new regional minimum levels by 16 September 2026.
Naturvårdsverket must make its decision by 1 October and report the result to the government the following day. The proposals must not make it harder for Sweden to maintain favourable conservation status for wolves.
Regional minimum levels are used when authorities assess how many wolves should remain in each management area. They can also affect decisions about licence hunting, but they do not automatically determine how many wolves may be killed.
WWF previously welcomed the EU’s criticism of the 170 figure and argued that such a low population could threaten the wolves’ long-term genetic health. The organisation called for management based on scientific evidence and EU requirements.
