A majority of Estonians oppose the Sweden-Estonia prison deal, which will allow up to 600 Swedish inmates to serve their sentences at Tartu Prison. The first group is expected to arrive later in August 2026.
The agreement is intended to reduce pressure on Sweden’s overcrowded prisons while making use of empty capacity in Estonia. It has been approved by both countries’ parliaments, but Estonian opposition parties say they may try to cancel it after the country’s 2027 election.
Most Estonians oppose prison agreement
A summer opinion poll found that 54 per cent of Estonian residents opposed accepting Swedish prisoners at Tartu Prison, according to a report by SVT.
The opposition has also become part of Estonia’s political debate before the parliamentary election scheduled for 2027.
Sandra Laur, a politician from the opposition Isamaa party, told SVT that the transfer could damage Tartu’s reputation. She also expressed concern that prisoners’ relatives might move to the area and contribute to the development of parallel communities.
No evidence was presented showing that such migration will take place. Visits to prisoners and contact with families will be governed by the arrangements agreed between the Swedish and Estonian authorities.
Laur referred to Swedish cultural exports before adding that Sweden should “take care of your own rubbish”.
Isamaa has said that Swedish prisoners could be sent home if the party gains power after the election. The party has recently led several national opinion polls, although future election results and any possible government coalition remain uncertain.
The agreement will initially remain in force for five years. It can then be extended for periods of three years unless either country ends it.
First Swedish prisoners arrive in August
Sweden and Estonia signed the main prison agreement on 18 June 2025. The Swedish Parliament approved it on 3 June 2026, and Estonia’s parliament followed on 10 June.
The new Swedish legislation allowing prison sentences to be temporarily served abroad took effect on 3 July.
According to the Swedish Prison and Probation Service, the first inmates will be transferred during August. Further groups are expected to follow every quarter until the prison reaches its planned capacity.
Earlier information from the authority indicated that the first transfer could include around 30 inmates. The number at Tartu Prison is expected to reach approximately 100 by the end of September.
The Estonian Ministry of Justice and Digital Affairs says up to 200 Swedish prisoners could be held there by the end of 2026. The number will then gradually increase to a maximum of 600.
The final cooperation agreement between the two prison services is scheduled to be signed on 5 August. It will set out practical details covering security, staffing, transport and daily operations.
Swedish prisoners will be transported to Estonia by air and escorted directly to Tartu Prison.
Estonia can reject individual prisoners
The agreement gives Sweden access to 400 cells with capacity for up to 600 inmates. Placing two prisoners in some cells will make the higher number possible.
Not every person serving a sentence in Sweden will be eligible for transfer.
The prisoners will be selected jointly by the Swedish and Estonian authorities. Estonia will have the final right to approve or reject each proposed transfer.
Only adult men serving longer prison sentences will be considered. The group is expected to include people convicted of violent or drug-related offences.
Women and prisoners under the age of 18 will not be transferred. Estonia will also reject people convicted of terrorism-related offences and those considered likely to continue organised criminal activity inside prison. (justdigi.ee)
The formal rules do not simply state that only inmates with “good behaviour” can be transferred. However, the security assessment means that prisoners who cause serious incidents or are considered a high risk are less likely to be accepted.
Estonian law will generally apply inside the prison. Swedish authorities will retain responsibility for the original sentences and several decisions connected to their enforcement.
Swedish union warns of greater unrest
The Swedish trade union Seko has warned that selecting lower-risk prisoners for Estonia could change the balance inside Swedish institutions.
Peter Hemström, a regional chairman for Seko’s prison service section, told Swedish Radio that moving well-behaved prisoners could leave a higher concentration of inmates involved in incidents.
“If we remove those who behave well, only prisoners who cause incidents will remain,” Hemström said.
The union fears this could make the working environment more difficult for prison officers and create greater tension between inmates in Sweden.
Seko also doubts whether the agreement will end overcrowding. Sweden is introducing tougher criminal laws and building more prison places, but the number of people entering the prison system is also expected to increase.
Hemström argued that employing and training more prison officers should be a larger part of the response. New cells cannot be brought into use without enough qualified staff to operate them safely.
The Swedish government describes the Estonian places as a temporary measure while new prisons and extensions are built at home. Tartu Prison is expected to reach full Swedish capacity during summer 2027. (kriminalvarden.se)
Estonia expects jobs and prison revenue
Estonia’s government supports the agreement partly because the number of prisoners in the country has fallen. This has left unused space and created questions about the future of Tartu Prison.
Estonian prisoners currently held in Tartu are being moved to prisons in Tallinn and Viru. The open-prison section, detention centre and sobering-up service will remain in Tartu but will be kept separate from the Swedish inmates.
The agreement is expected to preserve existing prison jobs and create more than 250 new positions in southern Estonia. Recruitment and staff training are already under way.
Estonia’s parliament said the arrangement could provide between €30 million and €60 million in annual contractual revenue, depending on the number of prisoners being held. (riigikogu.ee)
The prison’s living and working areas are also being renovated before the transfers begin. Equipment and furnishings are being replaced, and Estonian officers will receive training connected to the new responsibilities.
Despite these economic arguments, public opposition remains strong. The future of the arrangement may therefore depend not only on how the first transfers work in practice, but also on the result of Estonia’s parliamentary election in 2027.
